Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier’s legacies are about to collide.
Unquestionably two of the best lightweights of their generation, Makhachev and Poirier meet in Saturday’s UFC 302 main event for an undisputed title. That’s not all that’s up for grabs, as Makhachev can join the likes of the legendary B.J. Penn and close friend Khabib Nurmagomedov among the list of lightweight champions to defend the title three times.
For Poirier, he can turn all the never-was narratives on their heads with one good punch. One knockout. One (gulp) well-timed guillotine choke. Undisputed. Paid in full. All he has to do is beat the No. 1 Pound-for-Pound fighter in the world.
In the co-main event, former UFC middleweight champion Sean Strickland takes on top contender Paulo Costa. The climb back to a title shot seems steep for both men with Robert Whittaker and Khamzat Chimaev scheduled to face off soon, and Dricus Du Plessis’ first defense expected to be against Israel Adesanya. Could a definitive win by Strickland or Costa push them to the front of the line?
Also on the main card, Kevin Holland returns to middleweight to fight Michal Oleksiejczuk, and veteran welterweights Niko Price, Alex Morono, Randy Brown, and Elizeu Zaleski are in action.
What: UFC 302
Where: Prudential Center in Newark, N.J.
When: Saturday, June 1. The card begins with a three-fight early prelims portion on ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET, with continuing coverage of the four-fight prelim card also on ESPN2 and ESPN+ beginning at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET and is available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Islam Makhachev (1, P4P-1) vs. Dustin Poirier (6)
The vibes are immaculate for what is likely Dustin Poirier’s last run to the lightweight title.
If only vibes were enough to win fights.
Look, I understand there are plenty of folks out there who have talked themselves into a Poirier win. I’ve certainly done it, it’s fun. I don’t actually believe it though and therein lies the problem.
Poirier is an all-time great, but his current ceiling is clear. His past three losses are to Justin Gaethje, Charles Oliveira, and Khabib Nurmagomedov, a murderer’s row of elite lightweights that Islam Makhachev fights right in with. We can revere Poirier without putting unrealistic expectations on him, those expectations being that he is in any way more skilled than Makhachev.
The truth is that Makhachev always has his wrestling to fall back on, and that’s assuming that he doesn’t just out-strike Poirier. “The Diamond” would be the favorite in a pure boxing match, but Makhachev is an excellent MMA striker and that’s all that matters when you’re inside the octagon. He’s the best all-around fighter in the world and he’s going to reinforce that notion on Saturday.
All good things must come to an end. I don’t know if Poirier retires if he loses to Makhachev, but I do know this is his last opportunity to become the one, true king of the lightweight division.
Makhachev by submission in Round 3.
Pick: Makhachev
Sean Strickland (2, P4P-T17) vs. Paulo Costa (8)
As unpredictable as Paulo Costa is, how exactly is he going to figure out Sean Strickland? Simply put, this is a nightmare matchup for Costa.
It’s common knowledge at this point that anyone fighting or sparring Strickland for the first time finds him extraordinarily difficult to handle. Since this is a five-rounder, that might actually benefit Costa as it will give him more time to become acclimated to Strickland’s unorthodox volume striking. Dricus Du Plessis needed about 10 minutes to get going against Strickland and there’s a blueprint there for Costa to follow. That’s easier said than done though.
Other than the obvious hulked-up meathead (respectfully) comparisons, I’m not sure Costa can match Du Plessis’ relentlessness. If anything, Strickland’s pitter-patter style might annoy him into repeatedly making costly mistakes. The good news for Costa is that he has the explosiveness to steal rounds with a few well-timed flurries, but can he do that enough times to take three out of five? I’m not convinced.
Costa by knockout seems like a logical long shot pick, but remember, Costa hasn’t finished anyone with strikes since 2016. Eight years! Yes, that’s more so due to inactivity and the quality of his opponents than any shortcomings on his part, but the point stands that he hasn’t been able to land the coup de grâce in a while. If you can’t shake the image of Strickland being colded by Alex Pereira, keep in mind that was his lone knockout loss in his past 12 fights.
So we’re going with the obvious call here: Strickland by decision.
Pick: Strickland
Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Michael Oleksiejczuk’s recent fight against a welterweight-turned-middleweight went poorly and it’s not going to go much better against Kevin Holland.
One big concern for Holland here has to be if Oleksiejczuk mixes in some wrestling. At 185 pounds, Holland struggled to stay on his feet and Oleksiejczuk can do damage from top position if he scores a takedown. Keep in mind that Oleksiejczuk is a former light heavyweight too, so while he might not have a build that jumps off the page, there’s some density there.
But if this stays on the feet as I expect it to, Holland’s speed and reach should give him an advantage. As much as Holland struggled with the grappling against middleweight competition, he scored plenty of highlight-reel knockouts, too, and I expect him to be at his best here with his back against the wall. He hurts Oleksiejczuk early and finishes before the end of the first round.
Pick: Holland
Niko Price vs. Alex Morono
Raise your hand if you didn’t remember that this fight is a rematch. That’s right, Niko Price and Morono first crossed paths at a UFC Houston event in February 2017. Price was making his second UFC appearance, Morono his third. It was Price who beat Morono with a knockout flurry in the closing seconds of Round 2, only to later see his win overturned to a no-contest when he tested positive for marijuana.
Given that the first meeting was over seven years and countless fights ago, there’s not a lot we can take away from that result, though it’s not as if Price and Morono have completely overhauled their styles. Price remains the consummate wild man, occasionally outclassed but always a threat to drop the hammer. In contrast, Morono is a metronome, steadily working for 15 minutes with the scorecards going his way more often than not.
With respect to Price, Morono’s game has aged more gracefully since that fateful night in Texas and I expect him to control the distance and avoid Price’s power shots for three rounds. Morono has a sturdy chin and though Price’s fists have found it before, history won’t be repeating itself.
Pick: Morono
Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski
It’s not unreasonable to suggest that, at 37, Elizeu Zaleski has lost a step. The Brazilian veteran remains an exciting striker, but he’s becoming increasingly hittable, and that’s not good when you’re facing Randy Brown.
As is often the case, it feels like Brown is on the cusp of a breakthrough. He’s coming off of two good performances and has won six of his past seven fights. Even if a win over Zaleski doesn’t put a number next to his name, it should get him a matchup with someone who does have one.
The size and strength of Brown will be too much for Zaleski in this one, though Zaleski will make Brown pay every time he comes forward if he’s not careful. Brown needs to pressure Zaleski early and not let him get into any sort of rhythm. It won’t be easy by any stretch, but Brown outlasts Zaleski to take a decision.
Pick: Brown
Preliminaries
Cesar Almeida def. Roman Kopylov
Jailton Almeida def. Alexandr Romanov
Grant Dawson def. Joe Solecki
Jake Matthews def. Phil Rowe
Bassil Hafez def. Mickey Gall
Ailin Perez def. Joselyne Edwards
Mitch Raposo def. Andre Lima
