$Signed a four-year, $36.79 million contract with the Jaguars in July of 2021.
See red zone opportunities inside the 20, 10 and 5-yard lines along with the percentage of time they converted the opportunity into a touchdown.
This section compares his advanced stats with players at the same position. The bar represents the player’s percentile rank. The longer the bar, the better it is for the player.
2023 NFL Game Log
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This section compares his draft workout metrics with players at the same position. The bar represents the player’s percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that metric and it would be considered average.
* All metrics are from his Pro Day (not the combine).
Freed from the shackles of Urban Meyer, Lawrence looked more like the QB the Jaguars thought they were drafting No. 1 overall in 2021. With Doug Pederson at the helm, Lawrence improved significantly across the board in 2022. His on-target rate jumped five percentage points to 73.8 as his completion rate increased from 59.6 to 66.3 percent. He more than doubled his TD passes while more than halving his interceptions. And he helped turn a three-win team in 2021 into a playoff winner when he led a 27-point comeback victory in the wild-card round. After a QB7 finish last season, Lawrence could break into the top 5 of fantasy quarterbacks with another step forward. While his YPA increased by a full yard last season, it was still only 7.0, 18th in the league, giving him room to improve. He completed 34.4 percent of his attempts of 20-plus yards, 20th, and his 10.5 YPA on such throws ranked 28th. Calvin Ridley, who returns from a year-long suspension, should help with that and forms a strong WR trio with Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. TE Evan Engram is coming off a 73-catch season, and RB Travis Etienne is coming off a 1,400-yard year. Offensive line is a trouble spot, though, with RT Jawaan Taylor lost in free agency and first-round rookie Anton Harrison possibly starting immediately at LT with Cam Robinson facing a suspension. If the O-Line can keep him upright, Lawrence has the talent, weapons, mobility and coach to become a fantasy stalwart.
It’s hard to know what to make of Lawrence after the disaster in Jacksonville last season. The
first overall pick looked like a massive bust, throwing five more interceptions (17) than TD
passes (12). His on-target percentage was 31st, with only fellow rookie Zach Wilson lower. His
6.0 YPA ranked last, below even Wilson. Lawrence at least tried to throw downfield, his 7.9-yard
average target depth ranking 15th — not that it went well. On attempts of 20-plus yards,
Lawrence was 30th in YPA (8.6), 29th in completion percentage (29.9) and last in on-target
percentage (37.3). Of course, all of that awfulness is mitigated in part by the circus that was
Urban Meyer. Not only that, but Lawrence lost arguably his top target, DJ Chark, to a season-
ending injury Week 4. This year can be treated as a do-over for Lawrence under new coach
Doug Pederson, who should at least give the young QB a chance to succeed. Chark is gone to
Detroit, though, with Jacksonville instead signing Christian Kirk to a big-money deal. The
Jaguars also signed Zay Jones to go with 32-year-old Marvin Jones and disappointing 2020
second-round pick Laviska Shenault, and they added speed at TE with Evan Engram. There are
more guys to throw to than last year, but the team still lacks a speed receiver to get downfield.
That’s not good for any QB, and especially one like Lawrence who struggled so badly a year
ago.
The NFL has waited for Lawrence since he led Clemson to the national championship in 2018 as a true freshman. To hear scouts, coaches, GMs, media and the hype train tell it, Lawrence can’t miss. The top pick in this year’s draft seemingly has few flaws. At 6-6, he has prototypical size for a quarterback, and while he didn’t run the 40 at his pro day, he’s a dual-threat athlete who is elusive on the move. He has the arm strength, touch and accuracy to make throws at each level and “throws receivers open” with excellent ball placement on short and intermediate passes. Lawrence is noted for being mechanically sound, and his vision, poise under pressure and leadership are near universally praised. About the only criticisms — mild criticisms — are that his accuracy is very good but not elite and his delivery can get long. Will Lawrence live up to the immense hype? From a fantasy perspective, it’s easily worth the risk to find out. He’ll start from Day 1 in Urban Meyer’s new regime in Jacksonville, which all but guarantees 550 attempts. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell will call plays, and while he doesn’t necessarily scream innovator, the Jags have plenty of talent around Lawrence in running back James Robinson and wideouts DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones, who played with Bevell in Detroit. Plus, the Jags used their second pick of the first round on Lawrence’s Clemson teammate Travis Etienne. Lawrence is similarly mobile as the quarterbacks Meyer’s collegiate teams always relied on, which should offer a base of rushing stats. If the hype proves accurate, Lawrence will outperform his late-round ADP, and if he pops, like, say, Justin Herbert (QB9 last season), he could be a top-5 fantasy QB.
