Joe Schmidt has put a stake in the ground by only naming players committed to Australian rugby for the foreseeable future and done away with those moving overseas or to rival codes.
On paper these players represent a whole lot of experience, intellectual property, and Test-match ready talent which are heading out the door, but which one of these departing players actually hurts the Wallabies’ chances in the July Tests against Wales and Georgia?
List of departing players:
• Izack Rodda
• Ned Hanigan
• Lachie Swinton
• Jordan Uelese
• Mark Nawaqanitawase
• Carter Gordon
• Izaia Perese
• Josh Kemeny
Although this list looks like it has walk in Wallaby prospects, there is another list which will be listed later in the piece which contains players which could have a material impact on Wallabies’ chances in 2024.
The above list however is where this piece begins.
The tight-five is where the Wallabies look most vulnerable, in addition to a general inexperience across the squad.
The departure of Izack Rodda stings, there is no hiding this.
At 27-years-old, 202cm, 123kgs-plus, and 33 Test-caps, a lock of his size and skill is in short supply in this squad.
His addition alone would lift the experience considerably and his omission leaves Lukhan Salakaia-Loto as the only ‘experienced’ player in the engine room.
Izack Rodda’s departure will be felt. (William West/AFP/Getty Images)
The France-bound forward was hitting some good form at the back end of the Super Rugby Pacific season and was standing out in everything he was doing.
His proficiency at lineout-time, bulk at set-piece and gain-line carries would’ve been a huge boost to the Wallabies.
He is the biggest omission, and it’s his absence which will be felt most in this squad.
Waratahs duo Ned Hanigan and Lachie Swinton have both been in good form throughout the year, with the latter winning the Matthew Burke Cup as the team’s best player.
These two along with Melbourne Rebel Josh Kemeny hurt because of their Test-match experience.
This trio have taken time to get to where they are now in terms of understanding the game and their bodies and how to get the best out of themselves.
They are all staunch defenders, with good gain-line carrying capabilities which could’ve translated from SRP into Test-form.
Despite these assets, something Schmidt’s squad is not short of is backrow talent.
Schmidt has selected four No.8s in his squad; Rob Valetini, Harry Wilson, Charlie Cale, Langi Gleeson.
This could indicate John Eales Medallist Valetini could make a switch to blindside flanker.
Brumbies back-rower Rob Valetini could be used at blindside flanker after Joe Schmidt selected four No.8s in his 38-man Wallabies squad. (Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
Schmidt has also selected Liam Wright, Tom Hooper, and Jeremy Williams as well, with the former two having played Tests in the role.
Despite their positives, it is unlikely any of them would be guaranteed a starting spot had they stayed.
The experience of a forward-utility like Hanigan may have been useful but without being a standout backrower this season and being a sub-2m lock option, this versatility may not have made a material difference.
The tight-five woes continue with Jordan Uelese’s departure to France, leaving the hooking stocks considerably less experienced and with less bulk.
The three hookers Schmidt has chosen have less than 10 Test-caps amongst them, Uelese could’ve added 19 caps, two World Cup campaigns, and crucial weight to an undermanned Wallaby scrum.
However, more weight would not have helped at lineout time where Uelese’s throwing has been sub-Test standard.
David Porecki’s experience will be missed in July. (Photo by Adam Pretty – World Rugby/World Rugby via Getty Images)
From a technical-proficiency standpoint and from a lineout perspective the selected hookers should be able to kick-on under new lineout coach Geoff Parling.
In the backs Mark Nawaqanitawase, Carter Gordon, and Izaia Perese are all quality players on their day, but none of them can claim they have been near their own best form, or the best in Australia in their respective positions this year.
Nawaqanitawase is a Test-match animal, he lifts whenever his country calls, and may yet be able to show it at the Olympics if he can impress over the coming days.
His athleticism and size is unmatched in Australian rugby, and no one has a vertical leap like Marky Mark.
It’s difficult to gauge how his departure will impact the Wallabies’ potency because no coach, at SRP or Test level, has used his vertical leap to its full potential, and we will never know how much his omission will impact the team.
Gordon and Perese are very much in the same boat; there is buckets of potential and glimpses of brilliance from both, but the complete game is not there.
Perese’s acceleration and abrasive carry style causes all sorts of headaches for defences, but no coach has been able to sure-up his defence.
Perese is moving to Leicester Tigers in the English Premiership, and it could see him move into the no.12 jersey, where his skills can be better utilised and he can escape the defensive difficulties of outside centre.
Meanwhile, Gordon has been good for the Rebels this year but it can’t be said he has been the most consistent or best fly-half in the Australian eco-system in 2024.
“I think with Carter, we’ve actually got Noah, Tom and Ben, who’ve all done pretty well this year. Some of their percentages exceed Carter’s,” Schmidt said after unveiling his 38-man squad last week in Sydney.
“We’ve just got to be excited about the guys that we have got. I’ve had a number of discussions with Carter. I really like him. I think he’s a great young kid.”
Joe Schmidt during a Wallabies training session at Ballymore Stadium on June 25, 2024 in Brisbane. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Schmidt noted Gordon may need to get some stuff “out of his system” perhaps referring to the Rebels folding and/or the World Cup debacle in 2023 and that the door would be open should he wish to return.
Gordon like so many Australian youngsters has a lot of potential and Schmidt’s coaching team could unlock it, but potential is all it is.
He has no credentials which suggest he would make an immediate and strong impact on a Wallabies side in 2024.
Overall, the decision not to select these players while they remain part of the Australia ecosystem may be short term pain for long term gain.
And here is where the other list of players, who will make a huge difference once fit, comes in.
Schmidt named seven players who are “recovering from injury” and each player has something the Wallabies need.
• Angus Bell
• Harry Johnson-Holmes
• Max Jorgensen
• Rob Leota
• Lachlan Lonergan
• David Porecki
• Blake Schoupp
The front rowers are all Wallaby capped and could play a vital role in the success of the Wallabies throughout the 2024 season.
Having them fit, significantly boosts the strength of the front-row.
Most vital amongst the front-rowers are Bell, HJH, and Porecki who bolster the vulnerable loosehead and hooker positions.
Leota will add Test-experience to the backrow, as well as plug the versatility gap left by Hanigan.
He was finding good form towards the end of SRP and is sure to feature in the 23 upon his return to fitness.
Another not to feature in Schmidt’s maiden Wallabies squad is Brumbies flyer Corey Toole, who has been assigned to Sevens duty for the Olympics.
Toole and Jorgensen are electric in attack. Toole’s pace in particular is unique in Australia and is sure to feature throughout the year in Wallaby gold.
The only reservation one can have about the fleet-footed duo is their physicality in defence – it’s a topic which merits conversation, about when and how to best use the pair in 2024.
Schmidt’s decision to omit the departing players, and list the injured ones, shows he is acutely aware of the value both groups have.
Aside from Rodda, there are like-for-like options with those within or around the squad and those departing.
The age profile of the departing players and those in Schmidt’s squad is about the same, Test-experience is where the difference lies.
However, of all those departing players, based on form, it would be a stretch to say any of them would’ve been guaranteed a spot in the matchday 23 on July 6.
Schmidt has made a bold, but logical decision with his selection, his follow through is great to see, after all, these machinations are only for the moment, in place for the July Tests.
