$Signed a three-year, $51 million contract with the Raiders in September of 2022. Traded to the Giants in March of 2023.
See red zone opportunities inside the 20, 10 and 5-yard lines along with the percentage of time they converted the opportunity into a touchdown.
This section compares his advanced stats with players at the same position. The bar represents the player’s percentile rank. The longer the bar, the better it is for the player.
Avg Depth of Target
7.7 Yds
Avg Yds Per Route Run
1.61
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
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2016
2023 NFL Game Log
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This section compares his draft workout metrics with players at the same position. The bar represents the player’s percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that metric and it would be considered average.
Waller has demonstrated one of the highest ceilings among tight ends, but numerous factors will be working against him reaching it in 2023. After consecutive seasons with at least 1,145 yards in 2019 and 2020, Waller missed 14 games due to injuries over the last two years. In 2022 under new coach Josh McDaniel, the tight end averaged only 3.1 catches and 43.1 yards per game after averaging at least 5.0 and 60.5, respectively, in each of the previous three seasons. If McDaniels’ offense was the problem, Waller should benefit from a change of scenery following an offseason trade to the Giants, though the 6-foot-6 tight end will have to establish chemistry with quarterback Daniel Jones. While Jones has averaged just 15 touchdown passes per season and hit that underwhelming number on the nose last year, Waller is arguably better than any pass catcher Jones has worked with thus far. The veteran tight end – who turns 31 in September – could become the go-to option in New York’s passing game after being overshadowed by wide receiver Davante Adams in Vegas last year.
After back-to-back seasons with more than 1,100 receiving yards, Waller was plagued by ankle,
knee and back injuries last year, hobbling along to 665 receiving yards and two touchdowns in
11 games. It is fair to wonder if injuries will continue to bother him, considering he turns 30 in
September, but he has proven beyond all doubt that he is among the elite receivers at his
position. That said, the Raiders’ offseason trade for star wide receiver Davante Adams bumps
Waller to second in the pecking order of quarterback Derek Carr’s pass catchers. Adams’
presence could drop Waller to less than eight targets per game for the first time since his 2019
breakout season, but it will also mean less defensive attention, potentially helping his efficiency.
Plus, the Raiders offense should improve on the whole, which could allow Waller to approach
his hefty red-zone volume from 2020 even while competing with Adams and wide receiver
Hunter Renfrow for targets. Waller caught nine touchdown passes and ranked second in the
league behind Adams with 23 red-zone targets that year, but he has not found the end zone
more than three times in any of his other five seasons. That should change this season in Las
Vegas, even if the new team context leads to fewer targets overall for Waller.
Waller quickly dismissed any notion of his 2019 breakout being a fluke, coming out of the gate strong last season with 40 receptions in his first six games. The late-blooming 28-year-old then went through a bit of a midseason slump, before closing out the year on an absolute tear with 654 yards and four touchdowns over the final five weeks. Waller finished the season tied for sixth in the NFL with 145 targets, while no other Raider saw more than 82 (Nelson Agholor, who signed with New England in March). The Raiders surely expect to get more out of their wide receivers this year, but neither John Brown, Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards nor Hunter Renfrow poses a serious threat to Waller’s alpha status in the passing game, especially with Derek Carr still playing quarterback for Las Vegas. Carr’s accuracy on short passes makes him an excellent partner for Waller, who picked up 48.8 percent of his yards after the catch over the last two seasons. He might not have the 4.46 speed he had as a 238-pound wide receiver coming out of college in 2015, but there’s no question Waller is among the elite athletes at his new position, where he’s been decent enough as a blocker to handle snap shares higher than 90 percent in back-to-back seasons.
Waller took the long path to NFL stardom, with his breakout performance occurring four days before he turned 27 in Week 1 last year. He doubled his career receiving yardage by Week 3, eventually finishing the season top 3 among tight ends in catches and yards. Waller also tied for second among tight ends in YPT (9.8), while he was sixth in YAC average (6.6) and second in broken tackles (eight). Four years earlier, the sixth-round pick had entered the NFL as an oversized wide receiver before transitioning to tight end in his second season with the Ravens, but he never had much of a chance to develop at the position while serving suspensions for substance abuse violations. Waller has been open about his struggle, pointing to a sober, healthy lifestyle as the spark that eventually led to on-field success. Clearly impressed, the Raiders signed him to a four-year, $29.8 million extension in October, though they also went shopping for depth in the offseason with Jason Witten coming in on a one-year contract. While there’s no doubt Waller will be the team’s top receiving threat at tight end, he could see his snaps scaled back from last year’s 90.3 percent share, with any decrease potentially impacting his target volume. There is also some incoming target competition from other positions, after the Raiders selected Henry Ruggs, Lynn Bowden and Bryan Edwards within the first three rounds of the 2020 draft. The good news is that Waller has shown enough talent and polish to survive as a fantasy asset even if his volume dips.
There are big shoes to fill at tight end in Oakland following the departure of Jared Cook in free agency as the 2018 Pro Bowler racked up a combined 122 catches for 1,584 yards and eight touchdowns on 187 targets over his two seasons with the Raiders. Waller, an athletic former-receiver type, has been picking up steam as the likely replacement for Cook with plenty of upside and sleeper value given the potential volume available and lack of overall competition at tight end. The Georgia Tech product has a history of reliability concerns and off-the-field issues, but Waller provided a brief spark throughout the Raiders’ final four contests last season when he caught all six of his targets for 75 yards, including a 44-yard pickup against the Bengals in Week 15.
Waller’s athletic upside coupled with Baltimore’s attrition at the tight end position made him a trendy deep sleeper early in the summer; however, a year-long suspension for violating the league’s substance-abuse policy throws cold water on his fantasy relevance until 2018.
Waller shifted from wide receiver to tight end during the offseason, which makes sense given his 6-foot-6, 245 pound frame. As a rookie in 2015, he saw action in just six games and only hauled in two catches. Suspended the first four games of 2016 and in his first year at tight end, it seems unlikely he has much fantasy value, though some improvement from last year should be expected.
At 6-6, 238 pounds, Waller recorded a 4.46 40-yard dash and 37.5-inch vertical leap at the NFL Combine. He still lasted until the sixth round of the 2015 NFL Draft, after catching just 51 passes during his three years at Georgia Tech. He may have to compete for a roster spot, but the Ravens will likely look for a way to keep him around, even if he isn’t expected to contribute in 2015.
