Kelvin Gastelum vs. Daniel Rodriguez: Odds, full fight preview and prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight veterans Kelvin Gastelum vs. Daniel Rodriguez will throw down this weekend (Sat., June 22, 2024) at UFC Saudi Arabia inside Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Gastelum’s last fight was a disaster. After finally returning to Welterweight after far too many years fighting bigger men at 185 pounds, Gastelum was thoroughly handled by Sean Brady — he barely landed a punch (watch highlights). Any hype behind his 170-pound return immediately dissipated, leaving the 32-year-old unranked and with a long path ahead of him.

Rodriguez, meanwhile, started his UFC career off hot by winning seven of his first eight bouts. He’s since lost two in a row, however, succumbing to the grappling prowess of Neil Magny and the kickboxing skill of Ian Garry (see it). At 37 years of age, “D-Rod” probably isn’t going to suddenly become a title contender, but he could still notch a career-best win on Saturday.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Gastelum vs. Rodriguez Betting Odds

Kelvin Gastelum victory: -245
Kelvin Gastelum via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Kelvin Gastelum via submission: TBD
Kelvin Gastelum via decision: TBD
Daniel Rodriguez victory: +200
Daniel Rodriguez via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Daniel Rodriguez via submission: TBD
Daniel Rodriguez via decision: TBD
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Gastelum Wins

Gastelum’s game has never been the most complicated. Despite his wrestling background, Gastelum does his best work on the feet, relying on excellent timing and a very sharp 1-2 to get the job done. Occasionally, he’ll build other combinations off those shots, which is something he’ll need to do more of against men who can match his speed at 170 lbs.

Gastelum really shouldn’t struggle with this match up. Rodriguez is a bruiser with good counter fighting instincts, but he cannot match Gastelum’s quickness, nor does he hit hard enough to dent that cement chin with one shot. It’s an opponent that should allow Gastelum to shine … or demonstrate just how far the former title challenger has fallen.

In this Southpaw vs. Southpaw match up, the jab and low kick should both be of greater importance. In his only somewhat recent win against Chris Curtis, Gastelum did well to tie low kicks into his combinations, and he should keep that going here against the fellow leftie. If Gastelum is able to flash that fast jab and then start chopping the calf, he’ll limit Rodriguez’s offense and stay in control.

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How Rodriguez Wins

Rodriguez can scrap. A couple recent losses may have stalled his momentum, but “D-Rod” is an absolute gamer who can throw down with the best of ‘em, and he shouldn’t be counted out here.

I know I just wrote that this is a favorable match up for Gastelum, but that doesn’t mean it’s a horrible fight for Rodriguez. Gastelum doesn’t have the smothering wrestling of Magny or the excellent range work of Garry. He’s a scrapper too, the exact kind of fighter that Rodriguez likes to battle in the trenches.

The big problem here for Rodriguez is speed, but there are solutions to a hand speed disadvantage. Namely, Rodriguez cannot wait on his opponent. He has to initiate the exchanges, slip/roll/block Gastelum’s counter fire, then punctuate the exchange with a final shot. First and third is the rule of thumb, and repeating what I said above, finishing with low kicks against a fellow Southpaw could be a great way to pull ahead.

Above all else, Rodriguez has to make this a little ugly. Get close to Gastelum and put volume on the veteran, who has never been impossible to hit. Rodriguez might get cracked too, but that’s a better play than staying at distance and trying to deal with Gastelum’s fastest and most powerful attacks.

Gastelum vs. Rodriguez Prediction

This bout prediction is a question of whether Gastelum has anything left in the tank.

On paper, Gastelum is simply better than Rodriguez. He’s the more effective striker, superior wrestler/grappler and better overall athlete. He’s fought and defeated better competition, and he’s five years younger.

It’s a no-brainer pick.

At the same time, Gastelum has taken so much damage over the years, and he hasn’t been fighting all that well. He has just two wins in the last seven years, and the victory over Chris Curtis saw him benefit from a bit of questionable officiating regarding a clash of heads. It’s hard to feel confident in a man who’s done a lot more losing than winning for years now.

Ultimately, I’ll reserve just a bit of optimism that Gastelum is still fairly young and finally back at his proper weight class. He’s getting an opponent who will stand and trade with him, and those are fights Gastelum usually wins.

Prediction: Gastelum victory (-245)

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MIDDLEWEIGHT MAYHEM! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will return to KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Ky., on Sat., June 8, 2024, for just the second time in the promotion’s history — and the first time in more than 13 years — for a stacked “Fight Night”-themed event. In UFC Louisville’s main event, top-ranked Middleweight contenders Jared Cannonier (No. 4) and Nassourdine Imavov (No. 7) will look to get in the 185-pound title chase with a pivotal victory. In the co-feature, No. 14-seeded Light Heavyweight contender, Dominick Reyes, returns to action against Dustin Jacoby, in a fun 205-pound showdown.

Don’t miss a single second of face-punching action!

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Saudi Arabia fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 12 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (on ABC/ESPN+) at 3 p.m. ET.

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