It’s time to be realistic, honest and cold

We’ve reached the three-game-to-go stage of Super Rugby – others might know it as the semifinals – and The Roar tipping panel has a freshly minted champion.

While none of the four panellists could match the combined mega brain power of you all in The Crowd, Nick Wasiliev has finished top of our little pile, thanks to an odd lack of courage from rugby editor Christy Doran.

In opting to go with the favourites, despite being two points behind Nick with three games left, Christy has put his profession reputation over a hail Mary play for the title.

At the bottom, Tony’s wooden spoon is secured.

Christy Doran

Blues, Hurricanes

There’s one thing about Super Rugby that’s been a constant: playing at home matters when it comes to finals time.

Can the Brumbies or Chiefs challenge that statement? Yes, but only one of those sides realistically is in with a genuine hope of dampening the spirits of the locals – and unfortunately that’s not Stephen Larkham’s men.

The Brumbies can’t be written off, but history and recent form suggest it’s likely to be a step too far to knock over the Blues at home.

Why? The Brumbies haven’t beaten the Blues at home in a decade, they got smoked 46-7 earlier in the season at Eden Park, no Australian team has beaten a New Zealand opponent away in a Super Rugby final, and Larkham’s scrum has been on roller-skates for most of the year.

Expecting a battle up front, Larkham has loaded up his bench with forwards. He’s gone with a 6-2 bench, which is fraught with danger, especially with no recognised back-up to Noah Lolesio.

The Brumbies’ back-row is quality, including on the bench, but it’s the tight-five that concerns me.

The backline must be clinical to stand a chance. Blues by 13.

As for Saturday’s second semi-final, this is a hard one to pick. I’ve gone with the Hurricanes but that’s only because they’re playing at home.

Both sides are extremely well matched. Hurricanes by 4.

Nick Wasiliev

Blues, Hurricanes

Well, here we go. Staring down the barrel of history, it’s time to determine whether the Brumbies are the bridesmaids or the bride. It’s time to be realistic, honest and cold. The Blues will win this game.

They are the more direct, physical side. They know where to attack the Brumbies, and they know the Brumbies’ strengths. Add in a strong home-ground advantage, and the odds are increasingly in their favour. However, if the Brumbies match them in defence, direct attack style and at the scrum (much more likely now with James Slipper back), they do have the personnel to utilise their weapons and grab a win.

It’ll be closer than the drubbing earlier this year, but the home side should go through.

It is all or nothing for the Chiefs and for the Damian McKenzie renaissance. They play like that opening 25 minutes last week, they can beat anyone. But even with a misfiring attack, the Hurricanes still put on 47 points against a determined Rebels last week. Their attack is quality, they haven’t lost a game yet at home, and their depth has been ridiculous. The Canes should have enough and should go through to a home grand final. 

Damian McKenzie of the Chiefs on the way to scoring a try during the round two Super Rugby Pacific match between Chiefs and ACT Brumbies at AAMI Park, on March 03, 2024, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Kelly Defina/Getty Images)

Hamish Bidwell

Blues, Chiefs

I doubt the Blues will inflict the same kind of hiding upon the Brumbies as they did during the regular season, but it’ll be a handy win nonetheless.

Would love the Hurricanes to win. Just can’t help feeling they’ll implode at some point. 

Tony Harper

Brumbies, Chiefs

It’s almost time to give my tipping season a serious review – but before then I can tip with the freedom of a wooden spooner.

There’s no strategic reason to pick the two outsiders – that horse has bolted – but these are the side’s I’d like to see progress.

The Brumbies, for obvious reasons, and some less obvious. It has been thrilling to watch the lift in form from Tom Wright this season, Charlie Cale stirs the soul and Stephen Larkham’s matter-of-fact statements and droll humour deserve reward. Unfortunately nice guys don’t always finish first, but a hoodoo this ridiculous has to end sometime, right?

The Chiefs were astonishing against the Reds last week. It’s as pure a half hour of rugby I’ve seen and just increased my admiration for the wonderful Damian McKenzie.

Let’s go underdogs.